Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6910…1779 other 650 markets active 196d ago coverage 125d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,148 (+36%) realized +$24,265 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%24W / 632L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 78% +$24,577
sports 8% −$5,102
other 5% −$3,179
crypto 3% −$2,051
politics 3% −$1,686
economics 2% −$1,571
weather 0% −$181
culture 0% −$114
world 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-93.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -99.6% -99.6% 0% 0% -99.6%
all 651 -92.7% -93.4% 3% 2% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -93.4% 2% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here -94.0% 1% -2.2%
15% -94.6% 1% -11.6%
20% -95.1% 0% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -97% → late -87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,477 vs −$39 · ×37.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$24,265
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses24 / 632
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)656 / 650
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $136 $19 −$117 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $90 −$89 -100%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $81 −$81 -99%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $93 −$92 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $92 −$92 -99%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $87 −$87 -99%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jan 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Jan 31 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $94 −$93 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $92 −$92 -100%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $94 −$94 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Jan 31 $49 −$48 -97%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? Jan 31 $52 −$51 -96%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Jan 31 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025? Jan 31 $16 −$14 -87%
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025? Jan 31 $17 −$14 -82%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the second best domestic opening weekend Jan 31 $32 −$29 -90%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025? Jan 31 $20 −$16 -77%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the second best domestic opening week Jan 31 $39 −$32 -83%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 202 Dec 07 $45 −$41 -90%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 01 $3,204 −$2,835 -88%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $10,691 +$2,166 +20%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 25 $34 −$33 -98%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $76 −$73 -95%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $76 −$73 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 24¢ $39 195d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 25¢ $35 195d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 5¢ $27 204d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 5¢ $14 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 14¢ $1 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 14¢ $8 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 14¢ $1 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 15¢ $4 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 15¢ $5 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 16¢ $2 204d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 6¢ $45 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 14¢ $16 204d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $21 205d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $9 205d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $141 205d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $69 205d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 51¢ $1 206d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL Yes 1¢ $2 206d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL Yes 12¢ $3 212d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL Yes 11¢ $27 212d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL No 5¢ $1 213d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL No 7¢ $24 213d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL No 7¢ $5 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL Yes 6¢ $21 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL Yes 7¢ $1 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 9¢ $10 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 9¢ $32 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 12¢ $30 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 12¢ $12 213d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL Yes 7¢ $3 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.54 · official $18.89 · 3500 history records