Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6910…3e64 crypto 1335 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate77%1022W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$72
14 days−$232
30 days−$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$725
sports 0% −$30
world 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -1.1% -10.6% 78% 45% -10.5%
≤30d 1296 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 1296 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 44% -10.8%
all 1335 -2.1% -11.4% 77% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -10.6%
10% -19.9% 25% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 14% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1022 / 313
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1335 / 1335
History coverage146d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1335 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$34 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3027 history records