Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x6911…5318 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$12,070 (+6%) realized +$12,075 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,785per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$3,077est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$891
7 days+$10,426
14 days−$3,191
30 days−$1,625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$13,811
crypto 3% −$5,836
other 1% +$1,243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.7% +13.7% 57% 57% +52.6%
≤30d 12 +25.4% +13.4% 58% 58% -13.2%
≤90d 41 +12.8% +2.0% 63% 59% -5.4%
all 41 +12.8% +2.0% 63% 59% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 59% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 39% -14.4%
15% -16.7% 32% -22.7%
20% -24.8% 29% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$7,082) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,920 vs −$2,713 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$12,075
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$3,077
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage80d
Avg bet$4,785
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $207 $201 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $1,476 −$1,476 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $318 −$247 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $933 +$1,353 +145%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 +$143 +133%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8,509 +$8,539 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,319 +$2,635 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,825 +$1,031 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 09 $687 −$687 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 09 $16,576 −$16,576 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,093 +$2,616 +125%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $877 +$1,566 +178%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $109 +$144 +132%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $21,667 +$2,349 +11%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $2,891 +$397 +14%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $2,587 +$342 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $4,655 +$52 +1%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $4,104 −$87 -2%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $614 −$16 -3%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $409 +$347 +85%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $1,971 +$1,194 +61%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $7,082 +$7,635 +108%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $110 +$87 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 21 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 21 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 21 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 21 $2,110 −$2,110 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $9,773 −$9,773 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $18,656 +$4,996 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $15,945 +$2,711 +17%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $14,409 +$1,537 +11%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $11,704 +$2,168 +18%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $8,385 −$7,414 -88%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $6,057 +$1,794 +30%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Apr 13 $173 +$382 +221%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 09 $13,703 +$2,399 +18%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $3,810 +$271 +7%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $6,937 +$3,114 +45%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $432 +$119 +28%
Celtics vs. Hawks Mar 30 $498 −$63 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $56 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $46 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $221 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $49 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $533 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $186 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $313 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.31 · official $201.31 (match) · 626 history records