Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6912…c24e other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$283 (-13%) realized −$266 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$5
sports 34% −$190
crypto 8% −$119
politics 1% +$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -49.6% -54.4% 30% 30% -37.2%
≤90d 15 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 20% -55.0%
all 99 -32.5% -38.9% 29% 29% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 29% -24.0%
10% -44.8% 29% -31.2%
15% -50.1% 27% -37.9%
20% -55.0% 25% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 70
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions22
Markets (closed)99 / 121
History coverage604d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $98 $93 −$5 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 4.5 Corners Over 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Over 52¢ 48¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners Over 46¢ 44¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Ghana? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Argentina? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$14 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -95%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $75 +$24 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 24 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 02 $24 +$26 +113%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 17 $7 +$13 +203%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) Oct 16 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estonia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Oct 15 $12 +$28 +223%
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Armenia end in a draw? Oct 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Andorra vs. Serbia end in a draw? Oct 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Slovenia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Oct 14 $10 +$30 +285%
Will Slovakia vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Oct 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Kosovo end in a draw? Oct 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wales vs. Belgium end in a draw? Oct 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Greece end in a draw? Oct 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lithuania vs. Poland end in a draw? Oct 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Romania vs. Austria end in a draw? Oct 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Latvia vs. Andorra end in a draw? Oct 12 $11 +$29 +270%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Serbia vs. Albania end in a draw? Oct 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Armenia end in a draw? Oct 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? Oct 11 $28 +$60 +212%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Oct 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-10? Oct 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? Oct 10 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming Sep 27 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G Sep 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming Sep 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on September 26? Sep 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Argentina? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $99 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $15 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $25 1h
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $55 10d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $75 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.77 · official $365.77 (match) · 189 history records