Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6913…b8ef sports 129 markets active 2d ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%60W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -53.7% -58.1% 25% 25% -55.8%
≤30d 22 -12.6% -20.9% 45% 45% -19.3%
≤90d 39 -2.0% -11.3% 51% 51% -8.9%
all 129 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 47% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 47% -13.3%
10% -24.5% 47% -21.6%
15% -31.8% 45% -29.2%
20% -38.5% 44% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses60 / 69
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage162d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$2 +85%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Set Handicap: Lajal (-1.5) vs Gea (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $3 +$2 +75%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 +$2 +89%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $2 +$3 +129%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 05 $2 +$3 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $3 +$2 +92%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) May 28 $3 +$2 +82%
Dedura-Palomero vs. Pieri: Match O/U 21.5 May 28 $3 +$2 +96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Jodar vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 13 $3 +$2 +82%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Apr 26 $2 +$3 +119%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Apr 26 $3 +$2 +72%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Apr 26 $3 +$2 +82%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $3 +$2 +96%
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5 Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-19.5) Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 Mar 19 $3 +$2 +82%
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Utah vs. Stars: O/U 5.5 Mar 17 $3 +$2 +89%
Blues vs. Jets: O/U 5.5 Mar 16 $2 +$3 +108%
Spread: Celtics (-19.5) Mar 15 $2 +$3 +113%
Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Clippers: O/U 234.5 Mar 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Spread: Bruins (-1.5) Mar 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Mar 12 $3 +$2 +85%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $3 39h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $3 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 54¢ $3 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $3 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $3 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $2 5d
Set Handicap: Lajal (-1.5) vs Gea (+1.5) BUY Lajal 41¢ $2 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $3 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $2 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $3 9d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $3 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 57¢ $3 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $2 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $3 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $2 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $2 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $3 19d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $3 20d
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Ruud 55¢ $3 21d
Dedura-Palomero vs. Pieri: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 21d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $2 27d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $3 31d
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $3 33d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $3 34d
Jodar vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 34d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 63¢ $3 35d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 36d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Avalanche 42¢ $2 44d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 45¢ $2 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records