Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6914…9651 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$267 (-5%) realized −$182 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$685
7 days+$685
14 days+$618
30 days+$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$308
other 3% −$68
politics 0% +$108
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.4% -6.4% 60% 55% +13.1%
≤30d 21 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 52% +10.7%
≤90d 27 +6.4% -3.7% 52% 48% +9.2%
all 43 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 42% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 42% +3.0%
10% -26.3% 35% -6.8%
15% -33.4% 33% -15.8%
20% -39.9% 28% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$52 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage130d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 58¢ 52¢ $750 $666 −$84 (-11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $495 +$109 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $259 +$181 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $255 +$88 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $208 −$192 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $415 +$431 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $202 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $208 +$230 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$102 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$137 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 05 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 05 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 05 $20 +$108 +539%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 12 $46 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 12 $29 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 11 $20 +$31 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 11 $54 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 11 $30 −$20 -66%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $258 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $257 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $257 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $604 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $235 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $260 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $250 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $259 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $440 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $259 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $255 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $846 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $229 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $438 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.16 · official $767.17 · 84 history records