Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6917…ed29 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-32%) realized −$10 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$26
sports 16% +$1
crypto 12% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 50% -37.9%
≤30d 10 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 50% -37.9%
≤90d 10 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 50% -37.9%
all 10 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 50% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 50% -37.9%
10% -24.9% 50% -43.8%
15% -32.2% 50% -49.3%
20% -38.8% 50% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 43¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 +$2 +121%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +78%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $1 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $1 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.81 · official $1.81 (match) · 60 history records