Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6917…72fe world 38 markets active 4d ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 19% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 38 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage253d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $110 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $4 $0 -10%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $17 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $1 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $26 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $26 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $1 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $26 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records