Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x6919…da67 sports 572 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$561 (+3%) realized +$546 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%266W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$847now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days−$130
14 days+$214
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$174
other 10% +$223
world 5% +$148
crypto 5% −$10
finance 2% +$25
tech 1% −$28
politics 1% −$29
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 42% -11.4%
≤30d 331 +4.2% -5.8% 53% 47% -8.1%
≤90d 532 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 45% -8.8%
all 532 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 45% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 45% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -17.5%
15% -24.6% 33% -25.5%
20% -32.0% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$847
Realized+$546
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses266 / 266
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions40
Markets (closed)532 / 572
History coverage47d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $88 $204 +$116 (+132%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 72¢ $86 $72 −$14 (-16%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 74¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 48¢ $38 $29 −$9 (-24%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 33¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+175%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-11%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 76¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 73¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 35¢ $25 $20 −$4 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-25%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 51¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 61¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 36¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 62¢ 24¢ $35 $13 −$21 (-62%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 29¢ 30¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $37 −$4 -11%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$9 -17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $45 +$45 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$15 +41%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $42 +$18 +43%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $67 +$15 +22%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$12 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 +$55 +91%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $83 −$17 -21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$14 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $57 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$15 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $131 +$76 +58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $58 −$46 -79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $68 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 +$51 +45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $93 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$48 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $127 −$1 -1%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $150 −$26 -18%
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -38%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -58%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $231 −$14 -6%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $952 +$12 +1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $463 +$38 +8%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $45 −$20 -44%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $30 −$15 -50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 37m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $27 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 17¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $8 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $90 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $50 4h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $60 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $35 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 5h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $82 5h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 78¢ $39 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 78¢ $115 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $27 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $38 8h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $30 8h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $4 8h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $8 9h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $12 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $18 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $35 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.00 · official $847.02 (match) · 1878 history records