Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6919…1dfd world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 20% +$3
politics 17% −$5
sports 7% $0
crypto 3% +$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.3%
all 53 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage468d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $55 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Titans draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next? Apr 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 14 $19 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Mar 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $16 +$1 +9%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $17 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $28 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $29 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $28 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $20 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $7 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $22 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $28 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $26 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $28 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $28 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records