Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x691f…f8c9 finance 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$110 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,382per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 90% −$114
other 10% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.8% +2.9% 100% 100% +2.9%
≤30d 1 +13.8% +2.9% 100% 100% +2.9%
≤90d 3 -28.0% -34.9% 67% 33% -11.2%
all 3 -28.0% -34.9% 67% 33% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 33% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 0% -19.7%
15% -46.8% 0% -27.5%
20% -52.0% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$316 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$724
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1,382
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $635 $650 +$15 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 62¢ 63¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 17 $621 +$85 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 02 $5,192 +$115 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 28 $319 −$316 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 62¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $67 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $702 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $706 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $114 44d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $507 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 77¢ $62 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 77¢ $256 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 100¢ $5,190 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2,835 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2,358 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.89 · official $723.96 (match) · 20 history records