Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x691f…77a2 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$122 (-0%) realized −$124 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,527per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$44
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$94
politics 36% −$98
sports 7% +$24
culture 2% −$7
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$6
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 +0.4% -9.1% 10% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 120 +3.5% -6.4% 13% 11% -9.6%
all 127 +3.3% -6.6% 13% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 10% -9.6%
10% -15.5% 10% -18.3%
15% -23.7% 9% -26.2%
20% -31.2% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,697) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,527
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $195 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $4,569 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $517 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 20 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,434 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,706 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $6,291 −$7 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $3,382 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,504 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,237 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,418 −$4 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $80 +$66 +83%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,599 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,643 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $710 +$4 +0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $78 +$48 +62%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $959 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $994 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $3,754 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,760 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 +$59 +83%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 4h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $967 18h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $372 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $195 21h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $373 22h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $968 22h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $858 23h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $859 25h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $713 26h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $714 28h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $516 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $603 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $604 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $517 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $870 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $871 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $923 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $924 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $337 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,432 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $337 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,434 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,227 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,433 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,435 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,319 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.24 · official $393.24 (match) · 359 history records