Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6923…fa5b other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$37
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage134d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $310 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $732 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $107 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $752 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $360 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $372 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $664 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $198 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $251 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 58m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $49 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 4h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 5h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $49 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 10h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 14h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 15h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 18h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 20h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 21h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 28h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 34h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 35h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 43h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 45h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 46h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $13 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $13 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.94 · official $48.94 (match) · 1382 history records