Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6923…7849 crypto 131 markets active 6d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-2%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%85W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$166
14 days−$53
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$46
sports 8% −$26
other 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -32.9% -39.3% 57% 26% -31.7%
≤30d 126 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 44% -12.1%
≤90d 131 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 44% -12.4%
all 131 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 44% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% -12.4%
10% -21.2% 34% -20.8%
15% -28.8% 25% -28.4%
20% -35.8% 16% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses85 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage30d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$38 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$20 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$100 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records