Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6924…651a crypto 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%62W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$102
crypto 30% −$8
other 30% −$20
world 5% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +17.2% +6.1% 45% 45% -9.9%
≤30d 57 +17.7% +6.5% 46% 46% -9.0%
≤90d 57 +17.7% +6.5% 46% 46% -9.0%
all 180 +2.8% -7.0% 34% 34% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 34% -10.3%
10% -15.9% 33% -18.9%
15% -24.0% 32% -26.7%
20% -31.5% 31% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses62 / 118
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 185
History coverage123d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$107 +262%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$155 +303%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 17h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.51 · official $185.52 (match) · 312 history records