Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6928…22ae sports 663 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-6%) realized −$75 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%301W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$6
14 days−$180
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$27
other 18% −$38
crypto 7% −$2
world 3% +$18
weather 2% −$9
politics 1% −$8
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.5% -11.7% 36% 36% -4.3%
≤30d 389 -17.7% -25.5% 46% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 640 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 42% -14.6%
all 650 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 43% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 43% -14.5%
10% -22.5% 36% -22.7%
15% -30.0% 31% -30.1%
20% -36.8% 25% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses301 / 349
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)650 / 663
History coverage125d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 59¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 52¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 53¢ 50¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 36¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Under 83¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Yes 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Yes 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 No 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Chicago Sky 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5 Yes 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 59¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Under 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Under 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 41¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 57¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 No 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Under 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -92%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +174%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$8 -61%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $4 +$5 +133%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $8 +$20 +249%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +39%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Raja Club Athletic vs. RS Berkane: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $2 +$1 +48%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $3 $0 +13%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 +36%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $4 −$3 -78%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 -5%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes $0 54m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY 50¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 27¢ $3 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $2 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $3 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $4 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 36¢ $3 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $4 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 19¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $7 25h
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $2 25h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 54¢ $2 25h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 51¢ $5 25h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Hall 29¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Hall 30¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.90 · official $35.90 (match) · 1658 history records