Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6929…3fd8 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+12%) realized +$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%43W / 29L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$123
14 days+$236
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$176
other 47% +$62
crypto 2% +$3
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 49% -3.4%
≤30d 71 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 54% +1.3%
≤90d 71 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 54% +1.3%
all 72 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 54% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 54% +1.3%
10% -21.8% 44% -8.4%
15% -29.3% 40% -17.2%
20% -36.3% 28% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage151d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 +$10 +49%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$33 +109%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$20 +96%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$32 +158%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $187 +$13 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $82 +$43 +52%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $75 +$23 +30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $61 −$40 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 +$29 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$17 +83%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 +$9 +44%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $40 +$19 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $167 +$78 +47%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $105 +$14 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $123 +$56 +46%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $27 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $8 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 67¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 20h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $19 26h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $34 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $35 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $52 39h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 42h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.40 · official $46.40 (match) · 183 history records