Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x692a…9f20 crypto 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+3%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%130W / 11L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day116.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$83
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -2.7% -12.0% 91% 4% -6.7%
≤30d 141 -0.6% -10.0% 92% 6% -7.4%
≤90d 141 -0.6% -10.0% 92% 6% -7.4%
all 141 -0.6% -10.0% 92% 6% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 6% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 1% -16.3%
15% -26.5% 1% -24.4%
20% -33.7% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses130 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day116.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Up 97¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $65 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $84 +$5 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$6 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $65 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $80 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $29.74 (match) · 1274 history records