Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x692b…b4f2 sports 363 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,659 (+3%) realized +$1,704 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%176W / 176L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Fees−$717est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$971
14 days+$47
30 days+$1,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$264
other 2% +$845
crypto 2% +$769
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +19.8% +8.4% 62% 43% +22.3%
≤30d 352 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 48% -6.9%
≤90d 352 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 48% -6.9%
all 352 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 48% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 48% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 46% -15.8%
15% -12.2% 43% -24.0%
20% -20.9% 36% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +29% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$125 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$1,704
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses176 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$717
Open positions11
Markets (closed)352 / 363
History coverage27d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 45¢ 100¢ $41 $92 +$51 (+122%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ 26¢ $46 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ 26¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jurij Rodionov 48¢ 47¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Nicolas Mejia 40¢ 40¢ $41 $41 +$1 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 53¢ 40¢ $46 $35 −$11 (-24%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Ekaterine Gorgodze 18¢ 10¢ $46 $24 −$22 (-47%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Frederico Ferreira Silva 44¢ 20¢ $45 $21 −$24 (-53%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Paula Badosa 26¢ 10¢ $46 $17 −$29 (-63%)
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Lucio Ratti 30¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Martin Krumich 43¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $43 −$42 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $44 +$97 +223%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $41 +$19 +47%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $41 +$43 +104%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $41 +$16 +39%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $41 +$101 +245%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $41 +$19 +47%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $83 +$1 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $36 +$21 +59%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $24 +$32 +138%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $41 +$74 +178%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $21 +$12 +56%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $40 +$178 +442%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $40 +$17 +41%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $40 +$13 +32%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $9 +$11 +117%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $40 −$33 -82%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $40 +$51 +127%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $192 +$640 +334%
ITF Guimaraes: Manon Leonard vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 11 $49 +$32 +64%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Martos: Carles Hernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 11 $510 −$502 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $564 +$636 +113%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 09 $44 +$21 +47%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $1,873 −$1,873 -100%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $240 +$166 +70%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $50 +$67 +133%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $118 +$157 +133%
Cattolica: Petr Nesterov vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 09 $269 +$115 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $120 +$91 +75%
Cattolica: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Matej Dodig Jun 09 $57 +$97 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 40¢ $40 25m
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 40¢ $1 45m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 30¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 48¢ $43 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 48¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Martin Krumich 43¢ $12 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 1¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 18¢ $46 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $29 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $15 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 48¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $2 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ $2 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ $7 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ $35 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $18 2h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $46 2h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 44¢ $45 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $14 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $14 2h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ $2 2h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 48¢ $1 2h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 37¢ $1 2h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 37¢ $42 3h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 11¢ $44 4h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $6 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $38 5h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 68¢ $26 21h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 18¢ $41 23h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 67¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.67 · official $364.46 · 1549 history records