Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x692b…f126 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$985 (-13%) realized −$985 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,467
7 days−$2,467
14 days−$2,467
30 days−$2,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,393
politics 27% +$224
sports 15% −$258
world 6% −$464
crypto 5% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -52.6% -57.1% 22% 22% -49.1%
≤30d 9 -52.6% -57.1% 22% 22% -49.1%
≤90d 10 -34.7% -40.9% 30% 30% -34.1%
all 12 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 33% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 33% -28.6%
10% -40.0% 33% -35.4%
15% -45.8% 33% -41.7%
20% -51.1% 25% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$387 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage165d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $505 +$254 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,553 −$906 -58%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 29 $1,547 −$423 -27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $306 −$223 -73%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 29 $512 −$512 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jun 29 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $403 +$307 +76%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $512 +$648 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 09 $400 +$143 +36%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $800 −$72 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $759 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 17¢ $210 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $407 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $407 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $1,124 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 40¢ $253 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes $83 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $404 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $403 9h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 41¢ $100 9h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 3d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 19¢ $619 32d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 98¢ $615 41d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 87¢ $545 41d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $512 44d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 23¢ $928 49d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY Yes $460 140d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY No 29¢ $500 141d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL No 52¢ $728 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $400 141d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 57¢ $800 141d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records