Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x692c…aade
crypto · 1775 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$371 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$532 · open −$161
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$433
Realized+$532
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses860 / 698
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1558 / 1775
Avg bet$10
Trades / day110.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 21 History 1558 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$946
7 days−$838
14 days−$426
30 days+$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $146 $164 +$19 (+13%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 41¢ 96¢ $15 $35 +$20 (+135%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? Yes 29¢ 68¢ $15 $35 +$20 (+133%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 57¢ 90¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+57%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 46¢ 12¢ $78 $21 −$57 (-73%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 87¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $134 $8 −$127 (-94%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027? No 85¢ 89¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 10 Gwei before 2027? No 84¢ 62¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 63¢ 46¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 85¢ 10¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% +$842
sports 36% +$629
other 8% +$228
world 3% −$189
politics 2% −$221
weather 1% +$26
finance 0% −$23
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -43.6% -49.0% 27% 26% -49.9%
≤30d 1558 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 1558 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 50% -6.4%
all 1558 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 50% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 50% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 45% -15.3%
15% -24.6% 39% -23.5%
20% -32.0% 34% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.75 · official $432.75 (match) · 3500 history records