Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x692d…3640 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day209.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$43
other 7% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 36% -16.5%
≤30d 66 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 36% -16.5%
≤90d 66 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 36% -16.5%
all 66 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 36% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 36% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 26% -24.5%
15% -20.7% 18% -31.8%
20% -28.5% 14% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day209.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$6 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $55 −$35 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$12 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $85 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 46m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.95 · official $19.95 (match) · 265 history records