Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x6931…89ca
sports · 395 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$251 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$324 · open +$73
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses156 / 232
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)388 / 395
History coverage226d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 7 History 388 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$177
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 98¢ $40 $84 +$44 (+110%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 78¢ $15 $51 +$36 (+237%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+67%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Arsenal FC 53¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Heroic 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Magic vs. Lakers Lakers 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner DN Freecs 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Arsenal FC 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs TheMongolz 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 39¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Suns Lakers 60¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -91%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $51 −$35 -67%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 24 $51 −$43 -84%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $102 +$142 +139%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $26 +$6 +23%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 27 $115 −$115 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Feb 27 $88 −$33 -38%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 27 $89 +$59 +66%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs kONO.ECF (BO3) - European Pro League Se Feb 26 $53 −$31 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 26 $15 −$14 -90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $60 +$57 +95%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Feb 25 $18 +$8 +45%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $20 +$14 +69%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Feb 25 $20 +$7 +33%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 25 $277 +$200 +72%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) Feb 25 $80 +$32 +41%
Celtics vs. Suns Feb 25 $88 +$43 +48%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Feb 25 $50 +$44 +88%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Feb 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Feb 25 $120 −$38 -31%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Feb 24 $50 −$1 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 24 $46 −$21 -46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Feb 24 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Feb 24 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 24 $15 +$9 +60%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 24 $69 +$24 +35%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 24 $12 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Phantom (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champions Feb 23 $38 +$12 +31%
Magic vs. Clippers Feb 23 $20 +$20 +100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) Feb 22 $16 +$10 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Feb 22 $3 +$8 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$242
other 17% −$250
crypto 8% −$183
tech 2% −$13
politics 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 16h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 35h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 38¢ $102 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $25 18d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $51 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 19d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 20d
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) SELL Cavaliers 7¢ $8 20d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 20d
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $51 20d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Rockets 100¢ $244 43d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers SELL Raptors 57¢ $31 44d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 23¢ $26 44d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 41¢ $102 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -94.7% -95.2% 0% 0% -94.2%
≤90d 13 -65.7% -69.0% 15% 15% -49.7%
all 388 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 37% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 37% -11.8%
10% -32.5% 33% -20.2%
15% -39.0% 29% -28.0%
20% -45.0% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.65 · official $149.65 (match) · 1050 history records