Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6932…6878 sports 843 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,433 (+34%) realized +$14,415 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%346W / 489L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$774est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$3,917
other 4% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -39.4% -45.2% 26% 25% -47.6%
≤30d 332 +10.6% +0.1% 40% 39% +0.1%
≤90d 835 +9.6% -0.9% 41% 40% -1.3%
all 835 +9.6% -0.9% 41% 40% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 40% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 40% -10.7%
15% -19.0% 39% -19.4%
20% -27.0% 39% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$48 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized+$14,415
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses346 / 489
Est. fees paid−$774
Open positions8
Markets (closed)835 / 843
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 835 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $116 $135 +$19 (+16%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 46¢ 48¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+3%)
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Murphy Cassone 38¢ 36¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-5%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Solana Sierra 48¢ 50¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $72 $68 −$4 (-5%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Magdalena Frech 26¢ 28¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Gabriela Ruse 53¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $57 +$73 +127%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Sea Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Alex Marti Pujolras Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $0 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $7 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $5 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Murphy Cassone 38¢ $39 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Murphy Cassone 39¢ $3 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Murphy Cassone 38¢ $34 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Murphy Cassone 38¢ $4 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $0 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY Yes 44¢ $57 2h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Murphy Cassone 43¢ $5 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 48¢ $38 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 48¢ $34 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $88 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Gabriela Ruse 53¢ $3 4h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY Yes 45¢ $20 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 41¢ $11 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 41¢ $39 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.98 · official $460.99 (match) · 3500 history records