Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x6934…0aa7
crypto · 497 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$37 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses274 / 211
Open positions12
Markets (closed)485 / 497
History coverage17d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 485 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$44
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 90¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 70¢ 94¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+35%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 88¢ 86¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 75¢ 83¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 75¢ 64¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 86¢ 43¢ $17 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 78¢ 40¢ $16 $8 −$7 (-48%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% +$35
politics 5% −$26
world 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 +4.2% -5.8% 57% 54% -7.7%
≤30d 485 +3.7% -6.1% 56% 53% -8.4%
≤90d 485 +3.7% -6.1% 56% 53% -8.4%
all 485 +3.7% -6.1% 56% 53% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 53% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 53% -17.2%
15% -23.3% 52% -25.2%
20% -30.8% 50% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.29 · official $124.29 (match) · 1169 history records