Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6934…1f69 crypto 50 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day155.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$6
other 10% −$8
sports 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 26% -18.9%
≤30d 50 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 26% -18.9%
≤90d 50 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 26% -18.9%
all 50 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 26% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 26% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 12% -26.6%
15% -34.4% 10% -33.7%
20% -40.9% 6% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day155.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1068%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records