Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6936…e6fe other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$3
other 23% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 7% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 23 -7.4% -16.2% 39% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 4% -10.1%
10% -24.2% 4% -18.7%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage440d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 02 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $29 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $35 5d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $2 361d
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el BUY No 99¢ $2 388d
Will Han Dong-hoon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec BUY Yes $0 402d
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $2 408d
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 SELL No 99¢ $28 427d
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 BUY No 99¢ $28 427d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? SELL No 99¢ $6 427d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? SELL No 99¢ $22 427d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $28 428d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records