Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6939…663b sports 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized −$67 · open +$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2
other 37% −$101
world 8% +$120
crypto 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -57.7% -61.8% 18% 18% -33.2%
≤30d 11 -57.7% -61.8% 18% 18% -33.2%
≤90d 11 -57.7% -61.8% 18% 18% -33.2%
all 11 -57.7% -61.8% 18% 18% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.8% 18% -33.2%
10% -65.4% 18% -39.6%
15% -68.8% 9% -45.4%
20% -71.8% 9% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$23 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $50 $170 +$120 (+239%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $38 +$10 +27%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$121 +238%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.67 · official $406.67 (match) · 23 history records