Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x693b…84e3 crypto 736 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,969 (-7%) realized −$3,969 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%489W / 487L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day216.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 516 -43.8% -49.2% 40% 29% -32.1%
≤30d 976 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 39% -25.1%
≤90d 976 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 39% -25.1%
all 976 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 39% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 39% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 16% -32.3%
15% -45.0% 7% -38.9%
20% -50.4% 3% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses489 / 487
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)976 / 736
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day216.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 976 Trades
no open positions (328 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$39 +2322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$7 -316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$5 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$135 -223%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$42 -209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $53 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $33 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $59 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $19 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $34 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $58 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records