Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6940…b1e3 politics 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$327 (-57%) realized −$323 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$275
politics 47% −$135
crypto 2% −$9
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-90.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 39 -89.3% -90.4% 3% 3% -97.8%
all 39 -89.3% -90.4% 3% 3% -97.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -90.4% 3% -97.8%
10% -91.3% 3% -98.0%
15% -92.1% 3% -98.2%
20% -92.9% 3% -98.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 38
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage40d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? No $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 29, 2026? Yes 44¢ $1 $12 +$11 (+1064%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? No 12¢ 10¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-13%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? No 11¢ 10¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? No $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? No 10¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? No $9 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? No $9 $4 −$5 (-52%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? May 21 $17 −$12 -73%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $26 −$21 -82%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? May 21 $31 −$29 -93%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $1 +$1 +71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? May 18 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? May 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 -29%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 5m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY No $7 10m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $13 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? BUY No $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $62 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY No $3 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY No $4 27h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY No $9 27h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 39h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 29, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY No $9 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY No $9 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY No $9 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY No $8 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY No $8 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No $2 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY No $4 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No $4 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.73 · official $92.80 · 101 history records