Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6942…4b7c crypto 168 markets active 4h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%84W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$2
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$123
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.7% -10.2% 62% 32% -9.1%
≤30d 128 -0.0% -9.5% 58% 35% -11.8%
≤90d 167 -6.9% -15.7% 50% 32% -13.9%
all 168 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 32% -13.9%
10% -23.8% 13% -22.2%
15% -31.1% 9% -29.7%
20% -37.9% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses84 / 84
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage120d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1920 history records