Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6946…13da other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$242 (-7%) realized −$289 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$118
sports 18% −$326
crypto 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 0% -17.4%
≤30d 13 -44.3% -49.6% 31% 23% -32.5%
≤90d 13 -44.3% -49.6% 31% 23% -32.5%
all 13 -44.3% -49.6% 31% 23% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 23% -32.5%
10% -54.4% 23% -39.0%
15% -58.8% 15% -44.9%
20% -62.9% 15% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$65 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,309
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage36d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $385 $459 +$74 (+19%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 51¢ $140 $178 +$38 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $264 $170 −$94 (-36%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $105 $160 +$55 (+52%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $112 $104 −$8 (-7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $109 $86 −$23 (-21%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $46 $45 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $280 −$108 -38%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $114 −$77 -68%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,050 +$59 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $424 −$220 -52%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $22 +$8 +33%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $11 +$14 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $36 −$35 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $11 −$11 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $27 +$20 +72%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $28 −$27 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $112 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $62 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $127 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 22h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 23h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $46 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $137 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $82 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $93 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $192 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $193 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $312 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $81 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $578 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.79 · official $1,308.07 (match) · 100 history records