Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x6951…45cf politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% −$2
other 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 8 -1.9% -11.3% 25% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 12% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage238d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 94¢ 90¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 12 $15 −$5 -32%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Dec 31 $19 $0 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 25 $49 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 49m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 4h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 7h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $168 9h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 10h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 11h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 14h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 16h
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 161d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $19 173d
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? SELL No 100¢ $19 173d
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 209d
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? BUY No 98¢ $19 209d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $57 209d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $49 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.32 · official $18.32 (match) · 20 history records