Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6953…66c3 crypto 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$565 (-4%) realized −$814 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%139W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$420
14 days+$672
30 days+$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$900
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 63% +3.8%
≤30d 184 +10.9% +0.4% 62% 62% -1.4%
≤90d 242 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 57% -14.6%
all 242 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 57% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 57% -14.6%
10% -15.6% 57% -22.8%
15% -23.7% 57% -30.2%
20% -31.2% 56% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$65 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$814
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses139 / 103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)242 / 244
History coverage38d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Down 59¢ 46¢ $125 $99 −$26 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$61 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $129 +$82 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$65 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$38 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$51 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$53 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$46 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$45 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$74 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$25 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $129 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $210 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $129 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.96 · official $98.96 (match) · 578 history records