Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

69 0x6956…029a other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$82 (+4%) realized +$83 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR76%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$48

7 days+$104

14 days+$20

30 days+$20

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +76%

net ROI/market (all)+9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+22.3%	+10.6%	71%	71%	+11.6%
≤30d	15	+18.1%	+6.8%	73%	73%	-8.4%
≤90d	17	+21.2%	+9.6%	76%	76%	-6.3%
all	17	+21.2%	+9.6%	76%	76%	-6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.6%	76%	-6.3%
10%	-0.9%	59%	-15.3%
15%	-10.4%	53%	-23.5%
20%	-19.2%	29%	-31.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$86 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.17 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage

Net worth$171

Realized+$83

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage48d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$172	$171	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$126	+$48	+38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$74	+$52	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$48	+$26	+53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$40	+$8	+20%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$52	−$11	-22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$35	+$16	+45%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$70	−$34	-49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$63	+$7	+11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$64	−$62	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$41	+$23	+57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$17	+$23	+132%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$253	−$236	-93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 13	$506	+$84	+17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$180	+$73	+41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$7	+$3	+50%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?	May 20	$40	+$22	+55%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec	May 08	$51	+$17	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$174	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	98¢	$174	32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$126	34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$74	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$74	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$48	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	90¢	$48	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	74¢	$40	4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	SELL No	55¢	$40	4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY No	69¢	$52	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$51	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$35	5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL No	33¢	$36	6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY No	63¢	$70	6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL No	81¢	$70	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY No	72¢	$63	7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$64	8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$64	8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$41	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	99¢	$40	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	42¢	$17	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	6¢	$18	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	83¢	$253	8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	82¢	$253	8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	81¢	$254	9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	SELL No	98¢	$254	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	69¢	$180	10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	80¢	$170	10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	78¢	$167	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.13 · official $171.13 (match) · 41 history records