Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6959…5575 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,341 (-3%) realized −$2,097 · open −$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate70%47W / 20L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$977per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$158
14 days+$240
30 days−$1,837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$569
other 6% +$123
crypto 5% −$2,515
politics 2% +$359
finance 1% +$19
sports 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.5% -0.9% 71% 14% -5.9%
≤30d 32 -4.3% -13.4% 69% 9% -14.9%
≤90d 67 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 19% -12.9%
all 67 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 19% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 19% -12.9%
10% -23.4% 10% -21.2%
15% -30.8% 10% -28.8%
20% -37.6% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,085) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$322 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$6,183
Realized−$2,097
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses47 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions11
Markets (closed)67 / 78
History coverage92d
Avg bet$977
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $3,317 $3,494 +$176 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $950 $996 +$46 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 49¢ $875 $735 −$140 (-16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $220 $221 +$1 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $206 $215 +$9 (+4%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $190 $185 −$5 (-3%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $182 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 87¢ 26¢ $434 $130 −$304 (-70%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $42 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $920 +$79 +9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 18 $472 +$23 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $910 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 15 $147 −$75 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $80 +$94 +118%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $1,181 +$82 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $230 −$46 -20%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 13 $920 +$64 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $1,016 +$11 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $964 +$30 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $212 −$23 -11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 05 $140 +$110 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $96 +$7 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,652 −$2,522 -69%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $676 +$24 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,817 −$46 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 01 $769 +$71 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $846 +$54 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $4,383 +$401 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1,740 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $123 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $596 +$24 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $977 +$133 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,768 −$446 -25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $948 +$35 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $61 −$61 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $110 −$70 -64%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $940 +$42 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,114 +$98 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,085 +$80 +7%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 20 $346 −$200 -58%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $979 +$16 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $2,446 +$57 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $688 +$12 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,921 +$368 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $3,381 +$116 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 11 $910 −$910 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $3,398 +$67 +2%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? May 10 $10 −$7 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $2,699 +$101 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May? May 06 $315 +$185 +59%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 05 $42 +$17 +42%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? May 05 $12 −$10 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $703 +$79 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? May 04 $163 +$16 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 04 $905 +$95 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 04 $1,454 +$246 +17%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 04 $2,062 +$238 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 1h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 94¢ $182 28h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $999 28h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 38h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $495 38h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 92¢ $184 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $992 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 92¢ $736 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $99 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $285 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $285 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $305 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $115 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $164 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $819 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,183.31 · official $6,183.46 (match) · 510 history records