Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x695b…e43c crypto 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+7%) realized +$184 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%117W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$225
14 days+$225
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$81
sports 24% +$108
crypto 23% +$120
world 5% −$23
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +41.7% +28.2% 58% 58% +12.0%
≤30d 83 +2.5% -7.3% 37% 36% -4.9%
≤90d 238 -1.7% -11.0% 49% 45% -5.4%
all 238 -1.7% -11.0% 49% 45% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 45% -5.4%
10% -19.5% 39% -14.5%
15% -27.3% 30% -22.8%
20% -34.4% 26% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses117 / 121
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)238 / 242
History coverage55d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$42 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$45 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$85 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$37 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$25 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $137 +$35 +26%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 +$66 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$5 -15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 04 $3 $0 -10%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $25 −$21 -85%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 04 $15 −$9 -60%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Jun 04 $15 −$8 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $25 +$2 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 04 $2 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -56%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 18h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 20h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $3 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $66 22h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 22h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 22h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 23h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.64 · official $92.64 (match) · 581 history records