Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
69 0x695f…c833 other 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$22 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2
other 16% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -15.2%
≤30d 5 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.3%
≤90d 5 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.3%
all 5 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 40% -20.3%
10% -45.8% 40% -27.9%
15% -51.1% 0% -34.9%
20% -55.9% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,041
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage57d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $1,050 $1,041 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $110 −$33 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 16 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $23 −$22 -96%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs MASONIC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 08 $21 +$7 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,063 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $110 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 10d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs MASONIC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro BUY OLDBOYS- 74¢ $21 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.95 · official $1,040.95 (match) · 11 history records