Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6960…b9d4 other 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$67 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%24W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$7
other 23% −$55
sports 17% −$3
economics 17% −$5
crypto 3% +$2
world 2% −$5
tech 2% +$14
finance 2% −$6
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.1% -19.5% 3% 0% -15.2%
≤30d 31 -12.3% -20.7% 3% 0% -17.4%
≤90d 65 -8.8% -17.5% 9% 0% -14.8%
all 99 -6.2% -15.1% 24% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 11% -10.2%
10% -23.2% 8% -18.8%
15% -30.7% 5% -26.6%
20% -37.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses24 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage418d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+106%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 32¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-55%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $217 Week of June 22 2026? No 11¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $84 −$5 -6%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $67 −$5 -8%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 22 $3 $0 -4%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? Jun 22 $9 $0 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $6 −$3 -57%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 Jun 22 $35 −$1 -3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 -7%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -11%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -8%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $49 −$1 -1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $36 $0 +1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 22 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 22 $6 −$1 -9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 22 $13 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 22 $16 $0 -2%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -5%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 22 $7 −$4 -52%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -42%
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio Jun 22 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $34 −$17 -50%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 18 $54 −$2 -3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 18 $4 −$1 -18%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay May 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 18 $26 $0 -2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 18 $28 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 18 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in May? May 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 44 million views on day 2 May 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? May 18 $24 −$1 -2%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 18 $19 −$1 -4%
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? May 18 $3 $0 -5%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May? May 18 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 18 $21 $0 +2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May? May 18 $24 −$1 -3%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth May 18 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $217 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 7m
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL No 15¢ $7 36m
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY No 17¢ $8 45m
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 64¢ $30 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 17¢ $2 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 64¢ $1 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 64¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $6 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 9¢ $2 1h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 9¢ $3 1h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 2h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $34 2h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 2h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 SELL No 69¢ $34 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY No 70¢ $35 2h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 2h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 2h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.40 · official $42.40 (match) · 347 history records