Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6962…0902 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$17
politics 23% −$7
sports 8% +$27
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +4.3% -5.7% 9% 7% -9.5%
all 116 +4.3% -5.7% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -14.7% 7% -18.2%
15% -22.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -30.5% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage91d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $154 $154 −$0 (-0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $431 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $416 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $724 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $231 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $443 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $446 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 7h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 24h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 27h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 43h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $154 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $54 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 18d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.56 · official $219.56 (match) · 329 history records