Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6964…3954 crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$434 (-17%) realized −$430 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%36W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$43
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$87
crypto 37% −$157
sports 9% −$62
culture 7% −$162
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.0% -14.9% 35% 35% -21.3%
≤30d 24 -12.4% -20.7% 33% 33% -27.4%
≤90d 37 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 30% -27.3%
all 124 -21.4% -28.9% 29% 26% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 26% -28.7%
10% -35.7% 25% -35.5%
15% -41.9% 23% -41.8%
20% -47.6% 20% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses36 / 88
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage104d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$14 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +232%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 +$9 +104%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$20 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$46 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$30 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 17 $18 +$11 +59%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 +$97 +188%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Risk It All" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "I Just Might" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the wee Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Romantic" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard 200 #1 album for th Mar 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Mar 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the Mar 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $5 +$14 +271%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $69 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $74 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $13 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.09 · official $296.09 (match) · 298 history records