Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x6964…ef53
other · 230 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6,824 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,312 · open −$1,599
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,758
Realized+$9,312
Unrealized−$1,599
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses186 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)225 / 230
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3,145
Trades / day133.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 5 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$226
14 days+$3,880
30 days+$9,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $3,110 $2,460 −$650 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,715 $1,716 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $397 $399 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $157 $166 +$9 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $979 $18 −$962 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $910 $0 −$910 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1,755 $0 −$1,755 (-100%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $2,583 $0 −$2,583 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $2,688 +$9 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $252 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $28,910 +$41 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10,104 +$10 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1,788 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 9? Jun 10 $914 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $389 +$4 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $297 +$2 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $261 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $651 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,254 +$1,665 +51%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,597 −$1,636 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $52 −$36 -70%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $129 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $1,043 +$17 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 09 $1,521 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 09 $587 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 09 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $15,192 +$763 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $4,022 −$751 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $22,652 +$29 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,140 +$2 +0%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $18,083 +$46 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 08 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $458 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? Jun 07 $761 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 07 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 07 $392 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $133 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $26,042 +$1,048 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $73 −$59 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,628 −$1,118 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $0 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 5? Jun 06 $230 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 5? Jun 06 $230 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 5? Jun 06 $830 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 5? Jun 06 $322 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 5? Jun 06 $250 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $290 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% −$2,408
politics 14% +$9,636
weather 9% +$462
sports 5% +$58
tech 2% +$36
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 0m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 1m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,715 7m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $187 10m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $123 12m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 13m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 13m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 13m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 13m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 14m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 14m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 15m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 15m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $145 22m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 23m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 23m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 25m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $41 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $530 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -5.0% -14.0% 88% 2% -9.3%
≤30d 225 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 6% -8.1%
≤90d 225 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 6% -8.1%
all 225 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover133.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 6% -8.1%
10% -18.0% 4% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 2% -25.0%
20% -33.2% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,758.23 · official $4,758.23 (match) · 3500 history records