Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
69 0x6969…73c9 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$460 (-13%) realized −$450 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,110
7 days+$1,069
14 days+$1,061
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$143
sports 39% −$71
crypto 1% −$9
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +15.8% +4.8% 62% 62% +44.8%
≤30d 17 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 53% +1.2%
≤90d 33 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 45% -7.9%
all 33 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 45% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 45% -7.9%
10% -28.6% 45% -16.7%
15% -35.5% 33% -24.7%
20% -41.8% 30% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$84 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$450
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage71d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $14 −$10 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $352 +$379 +108%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $284 +$69 +24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $79 +$40 +50%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $99 +$67 +67%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $270 +$557 +206%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $38 −$37 -98%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 22 $98 −$60 -62%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $141 −$139 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $81 +$59 +73%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $255 +$58 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$88 +116%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $765 −$756 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 −$25 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $179 −$178 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $114 +$65 +57%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 29 $125 −$124 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $45 +$32 +72%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $51 +$92 +182%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $26 +$39 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $731 15m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $352 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $353 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $284 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $99 5h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $79 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 39¢ $49 36h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $38 2d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $37 2d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $98 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $141 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $81 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $270 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $313 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $255 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY 56¢ $130 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 46¢ $76 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $10 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $8 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $9 20d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $765 20d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 36d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $179 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.00 · official $14.00 (match) · 67 history records