Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x696a…1fec other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 59L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$13
14 days+$14
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$63
other 20% −$9
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$13
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 33% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 30 +1.3% -8.3% 47% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 37 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 3% -9.1%
all 96 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage480d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $125 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $44 +$8 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $183 +$6 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $180 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $98 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $243 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $177 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $162 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $108 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,209 +$28 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $277 +$12 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $630 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $430 −$3 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $228 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $264 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $286 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $317 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $154 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $149 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $164 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $164 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $972 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $1,066 +$2 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $944 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $18 $0 +2%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 21 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $125 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $125 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $122 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $112 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $176 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $180 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $59 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $98 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $59 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $86 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $61 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $177 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $177 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records