Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x696c…dbe6 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$161 (-2%) realized −$160 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$163
14 days+$259
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$137
sports 28% −$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 64% 64% -0.4%
≤30d 16 +15.7% +4.7% 69% 69% +3.2%
≤90d 36 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 50% -10.5%
all 66 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 52% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 52% -11.5%
10% -24.6% 48% -19.9%
15% -31.9% 45% -27.7%
20% -38.6% 35% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$73 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 76
History coverage123d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 67¢ 68¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$218 +107%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$60 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$74 +146%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $202 +$88 +44%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF América: O/U 2.5 May 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $3,000 +$100 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $1,169 −$361 -31%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $170 +$30 +18%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $157 +$69 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $91 −$4 -5%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $158 +$42 +26%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $144 +$96 +66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $20 +$30 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $30 +$20 +66%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $33 +$6 +18%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $68 +$88 +130%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $57 +$51 +89%
Will CF América win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $140 −$140 -100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $122 +$75 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $131 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $71 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will C BUY 25¢ $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egyp BUY 7¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Ira BUY 2¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a BUY 4¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Nether BUY 3¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 4¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $304 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $102 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $20 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.