Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x696e…1c38
other · 58 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
+$1,827 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,693 · open +$134
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,651
Realized+$1,693
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses39 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 58
History coverage39d
Avg bet$2,403
Trades / day84.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit2%
Chart Positions 2 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$270
7 days+$701
14 days+$697
30 days+$874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $1,500 $1,619 +$119 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $17 $32 +$15 (+90%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $233 $0 −$233 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? No 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$55 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$85 -151%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 13 $76 −$61 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6,026 +$438 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,062 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5,428 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8,651 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,552 +$113 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2,142 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,500 +$173 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,857 +$54 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,506 +$76 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $317 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,593 −$151 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,122 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $1,967 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10,754 −$45 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $676 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $3,081 −$91 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,150 +$46 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,030 −$33 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2,052 +$247 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1,139 +$26 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $2,613 −$7 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,203 −$180 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $118 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $341 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $4,908 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $761 +$37 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1,142 +$55 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $4,746 +$80 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $426 +$18 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,833 −$218 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12,443 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $5,454 +$78 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3,701 +$29 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $2,180 +$180 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $732 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $513 −$62 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $189 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1,752 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $1,191 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $3,721 −$65 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $521 +$16 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,072 +$110 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $2,011 −$27 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $382 +$38 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$1,910
world 1% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $74 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $128 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $254 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $349 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $116 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $469 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 19h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $219 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $436 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $217 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $174 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $173 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $170 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $170 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $168 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $161 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $87 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $70 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $159 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $168 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $329 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $224 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -34.3% -40.5% 62% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 47 +7.7% -2.6% 66% 9% -8.3%
≤90d 59 +8.4% -1.9% 66% 14% -7.6%
all 59 +8.4% -1.9% 66% 14% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 14% -7.6%
10% -11.3% 7% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -19.9% 5% -24.5%
20% -27.7% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,650.64 · official $1,650.64 (match) · 3500 history records