trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 17% | 17% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 48% | 22% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.4% | 22% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -27.1% | 9% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -34.1% | 9% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -40.6% | 4% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat? | No | 92¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-86%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 25 | $402 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Apr 25 | $181 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 14 | $205 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 14 | $110 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 14 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28? | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | +21% |
| Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Critics Cho | Feb 04 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | Feb 04 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Lola Young be nominated for Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GR | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will there be a Powerball jackpot winner by September 14? | Oct 29 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Elon Musk tweet more August 16 than day before? | Aug 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Oval Invincibles win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | Aug 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on July 7? | Aug 07 | $2 | $0 | -24% |
| Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July? | Jul 05 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Kanye back on X by Friday? | Jun 23 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the Eagles beat the Rams by 7 or more points? | Feb 11 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? | Jan 17 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will Coldplay be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? | Dec 04 | $480 | $0 | +0% |
| 30-year mortgage rate below 5% before election? | Nov 30 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| 10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | Oct 15 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Bears vs. Rams | Oct 15 | $11 | +$8 | +70% |
| Kamala Harris wins a solid red state? | Sep 27 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Sep 01 | $382 | −$16 | -4% |