Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x696f…6f29 crypto 1542 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$769 (-1%) realized −$769 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%750W / 781L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$51
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,026
sports 2% −$748
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +13.8% +2.9% 57% 43% +2.6%
≤30d 209 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 40% -6.7%
≤90d 566 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 33% -11.4%
all 1531 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 37% -11.0%
10% -20.7% 28% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 25% -27.3%
20% -35.4% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$54 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$769
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses750 / 781
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1531 / 1542
History coverage283d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1531 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$62 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$69 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $27 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $63 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $63 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $32 +$53 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $47 +$77 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 03 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $48 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $42 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2486 history records