Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

69 0x6974…f90b other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$210 (+11%) realized +$174 · open +$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$1,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$71

7 days+$261

14 days+$161

30 days+$161

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+28.4%	+16.1%	71%	57%	+18.5%
≤30d	8	+12.3%	+1.6%	62%	50%	+5.9%
≤90d	8	+12.3%	+1.6%	62%	50%	+5.9%
all	8	+12.3%	+1.6%	62%	50%	+5.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.6%	50%	+5.9%
10%	-8.1%	50%	-4.2%
15%	-17.0%	50%	-13.5%
20%	-25.1%	25%	-22.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$57 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$1,011

Realized+$174

Unrealized+$36

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions10

Markets (closed)8 / 18

History coverage8d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	84¢	82¢	$200	$196	−$4 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$150	$169	+$19 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	47¢	71¢	$50	$76	+$26 (+51%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	38¢	28¢	$100	$73	−$27 (-27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Yes	22¢	55¢	$25	$62	+$37 (+148%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$50	$40	−$10 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$71	+70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$151	+$74	+48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	+$35	+226%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$201	+$20	+10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$304	+$131	+43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Jun 12	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	84¢	$201	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY Yes	22¢	$26	41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$15	3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	90¢	$201	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$51	5d
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY Yes	69¢	$304	8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$154	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.43 · official $1,011.43 (match) · 32 history records