Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6976…f99b other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 765d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$200 (+0%) realized −$59 · open +$259
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%78W / 72L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$139
14 days+$783
30 days+$1,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$144
sports 42% +$902
politics 4% −$181
crypto 3% −$214
world 2% +$111
tech 2% +$9
finance 2% −$29
culture 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.5% -28.0% 33% 33% -19.4%
≤30d 21 +10.5% +0.0% 52% 52% +25.5%
≤90d 32 +27.9% +15.7% 59% 59% +27.3%
all 150 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 38% -9.0%
10% -24.4% 31% -17.7%
15% -31.7% 27% -25.7%
20% -38.4% 21% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$115 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

765d coverage
Net worth$671
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$259
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses78 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions5
Markets (closed)150 / 162
History coverage765d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 46¢ 81¢ $253 $448 +$195 (+77%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $92 $125 +$33 (+36%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $40 $83 +$43 (+106%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $26 $15 −$11 (-43%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $52 −$10 -19%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $87 +$28 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 −$202 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $121 −$120 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$337 +165%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $308 −$13 -4%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $337 +$698 +207%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $100 +$47 +48%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $1,003 +$111 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$127 +125%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$3 +26%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $708 +$722 +102%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $305 −$6 -2%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 24 $203 +$197 +97%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) May 23 $153 +$213 +140%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Apr 16 $200 −$6 -3%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $300 +$105 +35%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $100 +$89 +89%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 +$6 +64%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $150 +$295 +197%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $250 +$349 +140%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Apr 07 $558 +$86 +15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Mar 27 $604 −$604 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Mar 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 11AM ET Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 27 $459 +$313 +68%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-11-18? Mar 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Mar 27 $170 −$170 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5 Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Mar 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Mar 27 $10 +$10 +104%
Bucks vs. Raptors Mar 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $43 1h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $42 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $257 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $143 47h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $87 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $86 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 47¢ $102 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $102 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $121 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 37¢ $204 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $294 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 89¢ $236 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 9d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $337 9d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 10d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY 5¢ $1 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw BUY 2¢ $1 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $1 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $5 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $102 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 68¢ $2 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $1 10d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 10d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 83¢ $147 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $671.40 · official $671.46 (match) · 574 history records